Free For All - The Free Liberal Blog: Debt-Mail, All Over Again

August 2008

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In a year in which the Rs and Ds are putting up their weakest candidates, and serious if very long shot third-party candidates of substance are challenging the majors, it seems apropos to consider worst cases. Odds seem high that Obama will be our next president, mostly unless he makes some really bad mistakes between now and November or Americans retain a closeted racist attitude in large numbers. McCain's been uninspired and uninspiring, and his propensity to rationalize further war seems unattractive to a war-weary nation. Two former congressperson's, both hailing from Georgia, Bob Barr and Cynthia McKinney, have decided that their former parties are simply too corrupt to cotton any longer.

It's hard to argue with Barr and McKinney, yet we have to assume that neither will live at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue next year, nor will Ralph Nader. An individual vote is mostly a symbolic gesture, since no single vote is mathematically consequential, despite what they told us in high school civics class. Voting one's conscience makes abundant sense this go 'round.

Obama, the fear goes, could be the next Jimmy Carter. McCain – Dr. Strangelove. So, those who will vote non-R or -D have to ask the practical question: For whom do we root, if not vote for?

During the Reagan years, the D Congress accused Reagan of "debtmail." That is, clampdown on tax rates, which in turn caps the ability to spend incrementally more. It sorta worked, as spending growth at least slowed under Reagan, even with increased defense spending.

Obama, for all his coercive economic promises, will walk into the White House next January with the economy shaky, or perhaps recovering from the current slowdown. Growth does allow a president more latitude, but it seems unlikely that the current deficit and debt levels will be anywhere near solved. So, he'll have few options. Yes, hopefully he'll have to good sense to exit the Iraq blood and money pit far more quickly than McCain, which all else equal helps stem the red ink.

But, with a globalized economy, it seems highly unlikely that Obama will launch a wholesale attack on the private economy. If he does that, capital will exit to higher uses off shore. He's far more likely to tinker with the tax code, put a patch on the health insurance gap, make baby steps toward a greener technological base (probably subsidizing the "wrong" thing), and so on. "Yes, we can," will become "let's try this tweak."

Non-optimal steps, and probably missteps, but so long as Americans can keep practicing some ingenuity, methinks we survive 'til 2012. We're due for a major technological breakthrough, like computers were in the 80s and 90s.

This, versus WWIII in Iran? A no-brainer.

-RC

Debt-Mail, All Over Again

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